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Residents of the Big Apple will find out who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against each other. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat Cuomo in the party primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has run on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who resigned as governor in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to Trump's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has generated an excitement within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's engaging content on social media, his hopeful outlook for the city and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to take similar action to NYC, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in last year, not many had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has faced some challenges in the final phase, after video surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

Mamdani responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd