A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
